In a recent video by Derek Sivers (the original owner of Cd Baby) called Uncommon Sense, Silvers discusses how people try to predetermine what the next big thing is. His vague response was simple… “Nobody Knows.” To advocate his case, Sivers uses an example of predicting the future of the music business. His response states, “intellectuals of that particular industry would produce jargon responses to what they feel was ‘the future of the music industry’ based on what profession they were in.” He used an example of a person in the MP3 business. This revolutionary thinker would insist that the future of the music business will be MP3 players. He described this similar to product placement.
This assertion is difficult for me accept. The phrase “Nobody Knows” is quite ambiguous. In Psychology 101, we talk about the unique irregularities of human beings. Just because a couple who are brilliant artists of nature have a child, does not mean their offspring is going to be good at art. It is likely, considering the creative genes are there, but it is not certain. We should not use words like, “Never” “Nobody” “Always” “Exact” “All the time” because there will most likely be an anomaly.
Back to the discussion of revolutionary jargon, Steve Jobs is an example of how untrue Sivers acclamation is. Jobs was undeniably a “revolutionary” in the tech/music industry. One of his huge contributions was the creation of the touch-pad Iphone. You can watch the debut of this technological advance on Youtube. When Apple came out with the Iphone in 2007, it was the commencement of how the tech industry was going to change. Apple managed to reinvent this touch-tone, multiple-use technology into a phenomenon. Computers screens, Ipads, smart boards, are all products of this revolutionary product that Apple created. And Jobs knew. That’s why one of his first statements in the beginning of that presentation was, “I have been waiting 2 and a half years for this moment.” He knew the Iphone was going to take off, and he was correct. Iphones have taken over the US phone industry. It is rare to walk down the street and not see someone on their Iphone.
It is unfair and illogical for Derek Siver to assume that every entrepreneur’s statement about whether their product “revolutionary” is clamor. There are those who truly have a grasp to what product is going to take off, like Steve Jobs. With a good amount of hard work and a great idea, any product has the potential to “revolutionize.”